Garrincha

Garrincha (93 Base Icon) is listed at 2,685,000 coins, but the last 8 completed sales cleared at a median of 2,100,000. That is a 28% gap between what sellers are asking and what buyers are actually paying. Buy at the asking price and you would need the market to move 28% in your favour just to get back to level, before EA's 5% cut.

The card is thin: roughly 0.7 sales an hour, with 3 buy-now listings on the market right now. On a market this slow, a single seller undercutting can set the price for hours, and getting out of a position takes patience.

At 2,685,000, it sits near the bottom of its own recent range of 2,055,000 to 2,345,000 — 22% of the way up. That is the end of the range where the risk-to-reward on a hold is best, provided the card is not falling for a reason.